The Coffeespy

From the ISG report, available at TTLB:

Some of the possible incentives to Iran, Syria, or both include:

i. An Iraq that does not disintegrate and destabilize its neighbors and the region.

ii. The continuing role of the United States in preventing the Taliban from destabilizing Afghanistan.

iii. Accession to international organizations, including the World Trade Organization.

iv. Prospects for enhanced diplomatic relations with the United States.

v. The prospect of a U.S. policy that emphasizes political and economic reforms instead of (as Iran now perceives it) advocating regime change.

vi. Prospects for a real, complete, and secure peace to be negotiated between Israel and Syria, with U.S. involvement as part of a broader initiative on Arab-Israeli peace as outlined below.

Incentive 1 may be something Syria would like to hear, but Iran I’m not so sure.  Why not have a destablizied state to the west you can control through their militias?

Incentive 2 isn’t strong enough for Iran to care about.  Even with the Taliban in power, Iran wasn’t feeling much pressure one way or the other.

Incentive 3 is bribery.  Worse, it’s bribery to states wishing they had legitimacy but unwilling to stop supporting terrorism.

Incentive 4 may be welcomed by Syria, but Iran?

Incentive 5 is, to be blunt, an hallucination.  Iran will use the talks to bring up their right to have nuclear weapons.  They will stonewall any U.S. initiative and then blame the failing on the U.S. hoping to become a champion of Islam in the process.  Iran will perceive any overture as either an opportunity to smack us or just another Western attempt to get into their society (and change the regime).

Incentive 6 is a much larger hallucination than incentive 5 by a factor of 27.  Turning this into Israel peace talks is utterly nonsensical.  I’m not even sure what there is to say on incentive 6 that doesn’t include negative assumptions about the authors.

Talk to Syria and see where it goes.  Leave Iran be.

Hmm… I keep looking for the section that talks about what we should be doing militarily… or maybe the report wasn’t meant to address the overwhelming source of all criticism on the effort to date.

Right Wing Nuthouse talks about a dull document unable to wake up the President.

Allahpundit is dead on with “Success is not an option,” at least not in this report…

The Moderate Voice is heard on what the President is likely to do.

The Scottish Right lifts his kilt at the Baker and Hamilton.